Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas - COMPutational PLankton Ecology
Article Dans Une Revue Scientific Reports Année : 2022

Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas

Résumé

Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an extensive research topic, aiming at providing realistic ecological scenarios on which to build management measures, to help fisheries and aquaculture adapt to future climate-driven changes. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the contemporary and future distributional range of eight demersal fish species of high economic value in the Mediterranean Sea. We identify a cardinal influence of (i) temperature on fish species distributions, all being shaped by yearly mean and seasonality in sea bottom temperature, and (ii) the primary production. By assessing the effects of changes in future climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios over three periods of the twenty-first century, we project a contraction of the distributional range of the eight species in the Mediterranean Sea, with a general biogeographical displacement towards the North European coasts. This will help anticipating changes in future catch potential in a warmer world, which is expected to have substantial economic consequences for Mediterranean fisheries.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
s41598-022-14151-8.pdf (3.07 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte

Dates et versions

insu-03824731 , version 1 (21-10-2022)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Emna Ben Lamine, Alexandre Schickele, Eric Goberville, Gregory Beaugrand, Denis Allemand, et al.. Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas. Scientific Reports, 2022, 12, ⟨10.1038/s41598-022-14151-8⟩. ⟨insu-03824731⟩
77 Consultations
45 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More